Saturday 9 November 2013

Towards an evidence-based discourse about the Arab-Israeli conflict – who is responsible?

In my first blog, I called for an evidence-based approach to the Arab-Israeli conflict. That seems entirely uncontentious. I have yet to encounter anyone who opposes it. Why, then, do so many critics of Israel ignore almost all of the evidence?

I can think of a few reasons but let us clarify language at the outset. Evidence does not mean “arguments that I muster to support my point of view” since that sets up an endless reiteration of a vicious circle of prejudice. Evidence means the objectively verifiable facts relating to the conflict. There is no room here for the fatuous post-modernist concept of “competing narratives.” Either something happened or it didn’t.

Perhaps the most crucial piece of evidence that all parties should be capable of affirming relates to the so-called “two sate solution.” The conflict may be characterised as a territorial one between two peoples struggling to establish sovereignty over a tiny scrap of territory. All attempts to mediate have proposed a stunningly obvious and simple answer – share it. The British thought they had implemented such a solution when they carved an Arab state, Transjordan, out of the Jewish National Home in 1922 but that failed to meet Arab aspirations. The Jewish leadership, in an act of extraordinary generosity motivated by a desire for peace, acquiesced both in that initial partition and in later attempts to divide the remaining 22% of Palestine that lay west of the River Jordan. And indeed two states for two peoples (Jewish and Arab) could have been brought into existence in the 1930s had both sides accepted the Peel Commission proposal of 1937.

Why didn’t it happen? The Jewish leadership reluctantly agrees to the idea, subject to negotiation, while the Arab leadership rejected it outright – fact. Then in 1947, the United Nations Special Commission on Palestine proposed the same, albeit with slightly different boundaries. Again, it didn’t happen because the Jewish leadership accepted partition while the Arab leadership rejected it – fact. In neither case did the Arab opposition derive from the precise details of the proposal but to its principal. Their view was expressed repeatedly and explicitly – no Jewish state, within whatever borders might be suggested, would be acceptable in any form whatsoever. There are no “competing narratives” and to insist that there are merely obfuscates.

Over the years there have been many opportunities to resolve the conflict through negotiations based on that formula that all moderate commentators agree provides the only means of an equitable settlement. Think of all the misery that could have been avoided had both sides signed up to it when it was first proposed. That is the true tragedy – that the entire conflict and its myriad consequences could have been avoided. That it wasn’t cannot be attributed to anything other than the incontrovertible fact that one side refused to agree to it and expressed that refusal violently. And that side was the Arab/Palestinian one. Whatever transpired subsequently, the Arab leadership bears the entire moral culpability for the initiation – and to a large extent the perpetuation – of the conflict through their persistent refusal to accept the two-state solution. That is not my opinion. That is an evidence-based statement that is fundamental to any fair-minded and clear analysis of the problem.

Isra-Prof


Saturday 5 October 2013

Why another blog on the world's most reported trouble spot?

Why am I writing this blog? Simple - there's a gap in the market.

I see screeds of blogs on the Middle East on an almost daily basis. Many of these contribute nothing or little to anyone's understanding of the region and its conflicts, or to Israel's position in particular. That's because so much of this material reflects one thing above all - the opinions of its writers.

Now there's nothing wrong with opinions per se - provided they are derived from and framed within a careful consideration of the factual evidence. Sadly, very few are. As an academic, that disturbs me. The world is a complicated and confusing place. Making sense of it requires clarity of thought. If we spout our views on any topic without reference to the evidence, what do we achieve? Zilch. A transient sense of "getting it off our chest" perhaps but that won't make much impact on anyone else or effect change in the medium or long term.

Here's fact number one - Israel is losing the PR war. The evidence for that statement is overwhelming and I'd be happy to review it for anyone who doubts it. Whatever strategies that advocates for Israel are using to try to change negative public perceptions of the country are not working. If your examination of the evidence has led you (like me) to adopt a position that is broadly supportive of Israel, that must worry you.

So I propose that all concerned about Israelis and/or Arabs should change tack. We need to de-emphasise our instincts, beliefs and emotions - in short, our opinions. Instead we need to reassert the evidence on which those opinions are based. The philosophical posture of this blog can be summed up in this statement (attributed to former President Obama and many others): "You are entitled to your own opinions but not to your own facts." We need to challenge those with whom we disagree to present their evidence. And we need, in turn, to offer evidence to validate our position.

An evidence-based approach is necessary to contextualise the debate, identify the real issues and help promote a peaceful resolution of the conflct. If you agree with those objectives, you should find this blog worth reading - whatever your attitude to Israel and her critics.